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Success: the hard part probably isn't what you think it is.

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One of my favorite twitter follows is Jack Butcher.

He makes simple visuals which explain complex ideas.

He has a whole online business selling his design method and other online products to people.

He has thousands of followers.

The other day he sent out an email. He'd just closed pre-registration for his new online course about Search Engine Optimization, called Compounding Content, and he wanted to share his stats.

Later in the email he said he got 300 pre orders.

Think about that.

  • ≈200,000 followers on twitter leads to a

  • ≈40,000 email list, which leads to

  • ≈20,000 people who will actually open your email, of which only

  • ≈2,000 people who actually click on your link, and then

  • ≈300 people will buy and 500 will unsubscribe.

What's a good social media conversion rate?

On the surface, this seems to be about social media conversion rates. And I am interested in that. As I've moved more and more into this online space I repeatedly hear that social media isn't the magic horn of plenty people think it is. It's striking to see this in real time, especially with a creator I really respect.

Even if you're the best, conversion rates are really low. We need a more realistic vision of social media and influencers.

But this post isn't about that.

A mental model for success.

In any enterprise the further along you go the more the field narrows.

For instance, if you want to be a trainer in a model, that probably seems impossible. You've got to go to a training with a bunch of other people, and those trainings are happening all over the world. Then you have to send in tapes and get certified. Then maybe you'd have to become a supervisor in that model for a certain number of years to be considered. It feels like you have to compete with a ton of other people and jump through a ton of different hoops.

It sounds like a lot.

But it's probably not as hard as you think. Or rather, the hard part probably isn't what you think it is.

Yeah, the number of people who've been through the basic training is probably a lot, but at every level after that people will drop off. Which means if trainers are chosen from the pool of supervisors, that pool of supervisors is probably shockingly small.

In actuality the hard part is going the distance. If you can merely go the distance, your chances increase exponentially.

Just don't give up.


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